Here is a clip of about an hour of video I shot today south of Maplesville. I never saw anything to the ground but did see some rotation at times and some very intense lightning. I have sped up certain portions of the clip to help enhance the cloud motion. The windshield wipers were on and thats what you see wizzing by from time to time.

Thanks to Mike W for capturing this video of us punching the core of a supercell south of Marion yesterday. I should have gotten some video but was to concerned with the situation. It was definitely not the way to chase a storm and we will learn from that mistake next time but saying that it was a thrill and we came out safe. Check out his blog for his radar images and summary.

bamawx 

SPC has issues a small area for a moderate risk of severe weather today mainly south of I-20. Stay tuned for live chase action later this evening.

                                                              Tornado Outlook

Streaming Live Now on the Live Chase Tracker Page

 Live Chase Tracker

Radar pictures of storm that literally went right of us on CR45 south of Marion. These are as the storm passed and was headed toward Selma.

Looks like we we have the possiblilty of severe weather tomorrow through tomorrow night. The NAM has recently been a bit more aggressive on the instability tomorrow and therefore you must wonder if we do see some severe storms, even after having sleet earlier today. EHI (Energy-Shear) indices peaked on the 18Z NAM around 2.5-3.5 (marginal) around the Montgomery area. The SPC continues to have all of Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather with a 30% probability within 25 miles of a given point for most of the state. If the sun comes out tomorrow that could rapidly increase instability and pose more of a problem. The only thing we can do is wake up and see how things are shaping up on the mesoscale. I will be out chasing this event at some point so check back to watch the live tracker. I recenlty updated the site to include a radar image on the "Live Chase Tracker" page so that you can see the radar image I am using to find and analyze the storm.

Looks like we may be on tap for some severe weather Wednesday as the models continue to agree on the presence of marginal CAPE and high shear Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. More in depth write up tomorrow night.

from the SPC

Possible severe weather 5 days from now on Wednesday night. Here is the "simple" explanation from the NWS SPC:

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140927
SPC AC 140927
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2009
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DAY 5. GFS...ECMWF AND MREF HAVE SHOWN RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG UPPER JET
WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DAY 4. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY...DAY 5.
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE BY DAY 4 OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS AS THE UPPER JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES.
SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEEPEST FRONTAL INTRUSION WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF MONDAY. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF DUE TO THE DEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE WILL ALLOW
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH ERN TX
AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER DAY 4. ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MOSTLY HAIL MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MOISTURE
RETURN FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL
DAY 5. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ADVECT NEWD
THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND TN VALLEY AS THE UPPER JET AND SURFACE
LOW EJECTS EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
SERN U.S. WHERE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FOR A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.
ANOTHER GULF FRONTAL SURGE WILL OCCUR BY DAY 6 AS THE LOW EXITS THE 

ERN SEABOARD WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DAY 6-8.

Also notice the extreme fast flow across the US this week!

from www.tornadovideos.net 

Stay tuned and we will see how this event plays out!

JB 

Models continue to agree on the development of a low pressure system coming out of Texas moving Northeast through the lower Ohio valley Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Storms will fire Wednesday during the day through 10 pm or so Wednesday night. Instability values are quite low but shear levels will be high enough for some rotating storms. There should be sufficient low level shear to possibly produce tornadoes. I will be chasing this event during the day Wednesday. Stay Tuned!

Lower Level Winds valid 3pm Wed

Helicity (spin in the atmosphere) valid 3pm Wed

CAPE (Potential Energy in the Atmosphere) valid 3pm Wed

It still looks like a decent possilbility for strong to severe storms over Alabama Wednesday into Wednesday night. Although models trends have been shifting the best dynamics north and west the latest run of the GFS has shifted back to the south somewhat. We'll continue to watch and wait!